Unemployment

The Unemployment Rate released by the National Institute of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the Italian economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Italian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weakening in the economy. Normally, a decrease in the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Euro, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

Next event - Wednesday 2 July 2025 08:00

Previous
5.9%
Forecast
6%
Actual
-

The typical/expected market impact of this event is low.

The consensus forecast for Unemployment is 6%. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for xxx/EUR pairs and bearish for EUR/xxx pairs.

Most recent - Tuesday 3 June 2025 08:00

Previous
6%
Revised
6.1%
Forecast
6.1%
Actual
5.9%

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for EUR/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/EUR pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Unemployment was 5.9% against a forecast of 6.1%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Tuesday 3 June 2025 08:00
6.1%
5.9%
Friday 2 May 2025 08:00
6%
6%
Tuesday 1 April 2025 08:00
6.3%
5.9%
Tuesday 4 March 2025 09:00
6.2%
6.3%
Thursday 30 January 2025 10:00
5.7%
6.2%
Tuesday 7 January 2025 09:00
6%
5.7%
Monday 2 December 2024 09:00
6.1%
5.8%
Thursday 31 October 2024 09:00
6.2%
6.1%
Wednesday 2 October 2024 08:00
6.7%
6.2%
Friday 30 August 2024 08:00
7%
6.5%
Thursday 1 August 2024 08:00
6.8%
7%
Tuesday 2 July 2024 08:00
6.9%
6.8%
Thursday 30 May 2024 08:00
7.2%
6.9%
Friday 3 May 2024 08:00
7.5%
7.2%
Wednesday 3 April 2024 08:00
7.2%
7.5%
Friday 1 March 2024 09:00
7.2%
7.2%
Wednesday 31 January 2024 09:00
7.6%
7.2%
Tuesday 9 January 2024 09:00
7.9%
7.5%
Thursday 30 November 2023 09:00
7.5%
7.8%
Friday 3 November 2023 09:00
7.4%
7.4%
Monday 2 October 2023 08:00
7.7%
7.3%
Thursday 31 August 2023 08:00
7.4%
7.6%
Tuesday 1 August 2023 08:00
7.7%
7.4%
Friday 30 June 2023 08:00
7.9%
7.6%
Thursday 1 June 2023 08:00
7.8%
7.8%
Wednesday 3 May 2023 08:00
8%
7.8%
Thursday 30 March 2023 08:00
8%
8%
Thursday 2 March 2023 09:00
7.8%
7.9%
Tuesday 31 January 2023 09:00
7.8%
7.8%
Monday 9 January 2023 09:00
7.8%
7.8%
Thursday 1 December 2022 09:00
8%
7.8%
Thursday 3 November 2022 09:00
7.8%
7.9%
Friday 30 September 2022 08:00
7.9%
7.8%
Thursday 1 September 2022 08:00
8.1%
7.9%
Monday 1 August 2022 08:00
8.1%
8.1%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for EUR. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Unemployment result:

PreviousLatest
Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)Bullish change0%0.4%
Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(no change)2.3%2.3%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)Bullish change0%0.3%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)Bullish change1.9%2%
HCOB Manufacturing PMI(no change)4949
Unemployment ChangeBullish change34K11K
Unemployment Rate s.a.(no change)6.3%6.3%
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBearish change49.248.4
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBullish change50.551.4
Consumer Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.1%0%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change2.1%2%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)Bearish change0.2%0.1%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)Bearish change2.1%2%
Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)(no change)1.7%1.7%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)Bullish change1.6%1.7%
Retail Sales (MoM)Bearish change-0.6%-1.6%
Retail Sales (YoY)Bearish change2.9%1.6%
Business ClimateBearish change-0.57-0.78
Consumer Confidence(no change)-15.3-15.3
Economic Sentiment IndicatorBearish change94.894
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)Bullish change2%2.2%
Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)Bullish change0.6%0.8%
GfK Consumer Confidence SurveyBearish change-20-20.3
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)Bearish change0.7%0.6%
IFO – Business ClimateBullish change87.588.4
IFO – Current AssessmentBullish change86.186.2
IFO – ExpectationsBullish change8990.7
HCOB Composite PMI(no change)50.250.2
HCOB Manufacturing PMI(no change)49.449.4
HCOB Services PMIBullish change49.750
HCOB Composite PMIBullish change48.550.4
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBullish change48.349
HCOB Services PMIBullish change47.149.4
HCOB Composite PMIBearish change49.348.5
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBearish change49.847.8
HCOB Services PMIBearish change48.948.7
Consumer ConfidenceBearish change-15.2-15.3
Producer Price Index (MoM)Bullish change-0.6%-0.2%
Producer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change-0.9%-1.2%
Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)(no change)0%0%
Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(no change)2.3%2.3%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)(no change)0%0%

About Unemployment

Country:Italy
Currency:EUR
Source:ISTAT
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Monthly
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